Track Judge® Text Report

 

Track Judge® weighs each race based on

• Running Style (Pace and Speed) ,
• Experience
• Breeding, and
• Human factors (Trainer and Jockey)

Track Judge® handicaps by combining Running Style, Pace and Speed with Experience, Breeding and the human factors – Trainer and Jockey.

• T-J applies a statistical analysis to the Running Style – Position (RS – POS) approach developed by Jim Cramer. RS – POS projects the horse’s position at the quarter mile based on his prior races early speed and running style — Early (need to lead), Presser (mid pack) or Sustained (back of the pack).
• Once we have the quarter mile position projected, we project the horse’s likely position at the half mile and finish. The finish position is derived from the Projected Speed Rating (PSR).
• The PSR is the single most important handicapping factor. The top rated PSR horse wins about 32% of the time. The Running Style, Position, Half Ranking and PSR are used to generate the probabilities for win, second, or third place finish – projections very important to exacta and trifecta bettors.
• A key Track Judge® number is the Efficiency Index. This number measures the horses’ performance at today’s distance, on turf, and on wet dirt tracks. The number runs from 0 (no in the money finishes) to 100 (all wins). This simple number is calculated for the horse as well the sire’s progeny, and when ranked in today’s field, is remarkably predictive of a horse’s performance today.
• T-J considers the Trainer’s win% and the Trainer-Jockey combination win% for all horses and adjusts the oddsline where appropriate.
• T-J has a carefully constructed oddsline, comprised of running style, position, half mile and PSR rankings. It is then modified by the trainer, breeding, post position and experience factors appropriate for each day’s distance and surface.

The Track Judge® report combines all of this information in a text and graphic format.

Text —
It includes saddle cloth, post position, name, medications and equipment changes, days since last race, trainer, jockey, morning line and Track Judge® odds, RS-POS Ranks, probabilities for Win-Place-Show, PSR and last race speed, Maximum speed at the distance, on turf, and on wet dirt tracks, Horse Efficiency Indices, and breeding data.